How we rate traders
Data
Listed traders' public Polymarket trades over a rolling 90 d, sampled before tracking. Updated: 90% refreshed since then. Found from leaderboards and tag sweeps. Each category's monthly profit top-20 and floor rows stay listed; profit never sets a rating. Others leave after 2 d faded or losing, 3 d below 2★ or 30 d idle.
Rating
- 5★ Strong: copyable ≥ 40%, ≥ 30 copies over ≥ 20 events and ≥ 30 tracked, low end above 0%, no flags.
- 4★ Good: copyable ≥ 30%, ≥ 10 copies over ≥ 10 events, 90% low end above 0%.
- 3★ Promising: same floors; mean above 0%.
- 2★ Unproven: fills, but too few settled copies.
- 1★ Weak: hard to fill, or copies lost.
- Can't copy: a follower can't buy these trades.
- Too few: under 10 checked trades.
Method v4.0, per category; flags cap it. Stars use the 90% low end of ROIC and move once two daily snapshots agree; can't-copy, flags and tracking move them at once. Sorted by stars, then ROIC shrunk toward the category average (300 copies); never by leader profit.
Can't copy
Copiers can't buy these trades (in-play, fast crypto), or the price runs past their limit.
ROIC
Mean profit per copied trade, % of stake, after fees, to settlement; not annualized. Grey when its 80% range spans 0%.
Copyable
Share of checked trades where someone sold $10+ within 3¢ of the leader's price within 10 min. Sports and esports: pre-match only.
Weekly trades
Copyable trades a week, over 90 d; n = all trades.
Hold
Median days from buy to settlement or exit.
Copy vs leader
Same settled trades at $10: leader at their price, copy at fill.
Radar
Percentile among rated peers. Uncrowded: no buyer within 2 s. Spread: profit beyond the top event. Record: settled events. Speed: shorter hold. † under 20 peers.
Flags
- Crowded: another buyer within 2 s on ≥ 40% of trades.
- No losses: no losing event yet.
- Young: under 120 d old.
- Both sides: buys both sides.
- Basket: many outcomes of one event.
- Wins small: buys near certainty.
- One event: one event drives the result.
- Live gap: low end under a ~4-point fill haircut.
- Rebates: profit mostly rebates.
- Combos: profit mostly combos.
- Partial history: history only partly read.
- Losing all-time: lost money all-time on Polymarket: at most 2★, still listed.
- Unchecked: Sells into buyers, One counterparty, Linked.
Warnings
Beside the stars, not in them: tracked copies losing, or tracked fills under 30%.
Type
Likely bot or human, from trading patterns; not rated.
Limits
Modelled from public trades; fills are an upper bound. Past results, not forecasts or advice. In our walk-forward tests one trader's past copy result barely predicted their next; the category mattered more. Spread copies across traders and categories.
Disclosure
We trade on Polymarket. Our wallets are excluded. Independent; not affiliated with Polymarket; we never trade for you or hold your funds. Check whether you can use Polymarket where you live.
Contact
Names and images come from Polymarket. Questions: ox@mail.grokbot.com.
Removal
Email ox@mail.grokbot.com your profile link or wallet; prove it with our code in your Polymarket bio, an X post or wallet signature (steps). Weekdays 9am–5pm US Central, typically within 24 business hours.
API
Changelog
- 27 Oct 2026 · site 4.4: Steadier stars, shrunk ROIC order, watchlist API.
- 26 Oct 2026 · site 4.3: Warnings, tracked results and trades CSV in every data file.
- 24 Oct 2026 · site 4.2: Lists pruned daily, refreshed weekly.